2026 Greater Northwest Housing Forecast: Prices, Inventory, and Strategy

By Matt Stark

Matt Stark is a top 1% REALTOR® in Seattle with over 19 years of experience. A Seattle native, he began his career in 1999 as an investor before transitioning to full-time real estate.

Experiencing mixed signals from the Greater Northwest’s housing market? You’re not alone. While headlines continue to swing between boom and bust, the real story heading into 2026 is captured in one striking figure: a 35% surge in inventory at the close of 2025. This isn’t a seasonal fluctuation; it’s a fundamental shift that’s reshaping the landscape for buyers and sellers across Seattle and the Greater Northwest.

Will this flood of new listings be the catalyst for long-awaited affordability, or will fierce buyer demand swallow it up and keep prices climbing? We’ve analyzed the local data to move past the hype and answer the critical question on everyone’s mind: Do you hold, buy, or sell in this new market reality?

According to local market data, we are entering a year defined by this major supply shift. The data from the end of 2025 paints a clear picture: a significant supply buildup. For the Greater Northwest, that means the rules of engagement are changing, creating new strategies for buyers and sellers who understand the numbers.

Here’s what you need to know.

1. We are starting 2026 with a massive inventory buffer. Active listings ended 2025 up 35% year-over-year. This means we enter the new year with a substantially larger pool of homes for sale than we had 12 months ago. In practical terms, buyers have more options, and sellers face more competition from day one. This buffer sets the tone for the entire year.

2. Homes are taking longer to sell, signaling a market shift. About 80% of homes have now been on the market for over 3 weeks. Throughout last year, that figure never dropped below 50%. This sustained increase in marketing time indicates that buyer urgency has moderated and that pricing accurately from the outset is now critical for a successful sale.

3. A new wave of inventory is poised to hit this spring. We will see a typical seasonal pickup in January from motivated sellers. However, the significant surge in new listings is very likely to begin in late February or early March and last through May. Many sellers waiting for the ideal “spring curb appeal” will list then, potentially creating a large accumulation of available homes in a short period.

4. The key question is the buyer demand’s absorption rate. The major unknown for 2026 is whether buyer demand will be strong enough to absorb this incoming spring inventory, especially on top of the 35% supply increase we already have. The balance between this new supply and demand will be the primary driver of price trends in the Greater Northwest this year.

5. The supply-demand scale will determine prices. If demand is robust and absorbs inventory steadily, we will likely see prices remain relatively flat. However, if supply outpaces buyer activity (a realistic scenario given current data), the market could see downward price pressure. Monitoring price reductions and the average sale price through the spring will be the clearest indicator of market direction.

6. Strategic timing and pricing are now more important than ever. For sellers, the “list it, and it sells” mentality is over. Professional pricing based on immediate, hyper-local comps and strategic preparation for spring competition is essential. For buyers, increased choice and less frenzy provide space for due diligence and negotiation, but waiting too long could mean facing a crowded spring market.

What this means for buyers, sellers, and homeowners. For buyers, 2026 presents a noticeable shift from the recent past. More options and longer marketing cycles reduce pressure, but require a sharper strategy to identify value. For sellers, exceptional marketing and precise, data-driven pricing are non-negotiable to stand out. For homeowners considering a move, understanding this inventory landscape is the first step in building a successful plan.

2026 is shaping up to be a year ruled by supply. Success will belong to those who respect the data, adapt their strategy, and move with informed intention.

If you’re thinking about buying, selling, or simply understanding your position in the Greater Northwest’s market and want a plan based on local data, call 206-940-4557, email matt@mattstarkrealestate.com, or visit searchhomesnw.com to connect with us. Don’t just watch the market shift—understand it, prepare for it, and strategically position yourself to win in it.