2026 July Housing Market Update

By Matt Stark

Matt Stark is a top 1% REALTOR® in Seattle with over 19 years of experience. A Seattle native, he began his career in 1999 as an investor before transitioning to full-time real estate.

Every month, I pull out real estate market updates in the Greater Northwest area as a numbers nerd. This time, I wanted to try something different. Instead of just looking at where we are today, we will see how much the market has actually moved in the same week of July for the last four years: 2023, 2024, 2025, and 2026.

The picture that comes out of it is pretty striking.

Inventory has climbed every single year since 2023. These are the active listings on the market from 2023 to 2026, for the same week in July.

• 2023: 801
• 2024: 1,100
• 2025: 1,632
• 2026: 2,134

So in three years, we’ve gone from 801 to over 2,100 listings in the same week of the year. That’s a steady, uninterrupted climb, and it’s the story of inventory slowly rebuilding after the historically low supply we saw following the pandemic.

Rates aren’t what’s driving this. Right now, a 30-year fixed sits around 6.5%, and we’ve been in that same 6% to 7% range for quite a while. Rates haven’t spiked and crushed demand. They’ve been fairly steady the whole time. What’s changed is the inventory growing alongside them, and that’s what’s reshaping the market.

So is it a buyer’s market or a seller’s market? I get that question constantly, and the traditional way to answer it is months of inventory, meaning if no new homes came on the market starting today, how long would it take to sell through everything that’s already listed?

The break line is right around three months. Under three months, it’s a seller’s market; over three months, it’s a buyer’s market.

Right now, we’re sitting at about 3.2 months, so we’ve just crossed over into buyer’s market territory. Look back, and you can see how we got here: it was roughly 2.5 months last year, about 1.8 in 2024, and around 1.2 in 2023. That’s a steady walk from a strong seller’s market, through balanced, and now just into buyer’s territory.

And prices are starting to follow. Overall, they’re down about 6%. That’s not a dramatic drop, but it’s real, and it’s coming directly from that extra inventory, giving buyers more to choose from. When supply increases, prices soften. That’s what we’re seeing.

One thing worth remembering: these are the numbers for our market as a whole, and your specific situation can look quite different depending on your ZIP code and neighborhood.

If you’ve got questions about your property or what’s happening on your street, reach out. Call or text me at 206-940-4557, email me at matt@mattstarkrealestate.com, or visit searchhomesnw.com.