2026 September Housing Market Update

By Matt Stark

Matt Stark is a top 1% REALTOR® in Seattle with over 19 years of experience. A Seattle native, he began his career in 1999 as an investor before transitioning to full-time real estate.

If the market feels a little different right now, the recent numbers from September 2026 help explain what’s going on, and honestly, it’s probably not what most people would guess.

The easy assumption is that a bunch of new listings have hit the market. But when you actually look at the data across the Greater Northwest, that’s not really the story this fall.

There aren’t a lot more sellers out there. You might think the market’s shifting because homes are piling up, but the numbers don’t show that. Listings are only up about 3% from this time last year, which isn’t a big difference at all. So if things feel different, it’s not because a wave of new inventory showed up.

It’s more that buyers have pulled back. This is the number I’d really pay attention to. Pending sales are down almost 13% compared to the same time last year. That’s a pretty meaningful drop, and it’s happening on the demand side, not the supply side. Fewer buyers are moving forward right now, and that tells you more about how this market feels than anything going on with the number of homes for sale.

Rates are a big reason why. Much of that hesitation comes back to interest rates, which jumped significantly this month. We started at around 6.7%, and now we’re just over seven, somewhere in the 7.25% range depending on the buyer and how they qualify. That’s not nothing. On a $600,000 loan, I figured it’s over $350 a month in extra interest, and that’s real money. There’s also been talk of another increase before the end of the year, and if that happens, it only adds to the effect.

Inventory looks like it probably peaked. On the supply side, the September data showed us topping out at about 2,287 homes in the third week, the highest level all year. That’s pretty normal seasonally, since inventory usually peaks around this time before slowly coming down through the end of the year. So instead of homes continuing to stack up, we’re more likely to see that number ease off from here.

The questions from here are pretty simple. If rates go up again, does demand keep dropping? Do we see fewer pendings? And does inventory actually come down the way it usually does this time of year, or does it keep building? Those are the things that’ll tell us where we’re headed into next year.

That’s simply my take on where things stand right now. If you have questions about what this means for you, whether you’re thinking about buying or selling, I’m always happy to help. Call or text me at 206-940-4557, email me at matt@mattstarkrealestate.com, or visit searchhomesnw.com. Reach out anytime.